Comparing universal kriging and land-use regression for predicting concentrations of gaseous oxides of nitrogen (NOx) for the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis and Air Pollution (MESA Air)

BACKGROUND: Epidemiological studies that assess the health effects of long-term exposure to ambient air pollution are used to inform public policy. These studies rely on exposure models that use data collected from pollution monitoring sites to predict exposures at subject locations. Land use regression (LUR) and universal kriging (UK) have been suggested as potential prediction methods. We evaluate these approaches on a dataset including measurements from three seasons in Los Angeles, CA. METHODS: The measurements of gaseous oxides of nitrogen (NOx) used in this study are from a "snapshot" sampling campaign that is part of the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis and Air Pollution (MESA Air). The measurements in Los Angeles were collected during three two-week periods in the summer, autumn, and winter, each with about 150 sites. The design included clusters of monitors on either side of busy roads to capture near-field gradients of traffic-related pollution. LUR and UK prediction models were created using geographic information system (GIS)-based covariates. Selection of covariates was based on 10-fold cross-validated (CV) R(2) and root mean square error (RMSE). Since UK requires specialized software, a computationally simpler two-step procedure was also employed to approximate fitting the UK model using readily available regression and GIS software. RESULTS: UK models consistently performed as well as or better than the analogous LUR models. The best CV R(2) values for season-specific UK models predicting log(NOx) were 0.75, 0.72, and 0.74 (CV RMSE 0.20, 0.17, and 0.15) for summer, autumn, and winter, respectively. The best CV R(2) values for season-specific LUR models predicting log(NOx) were 0.74, 0.60, and 0.67 (CV RMSE 0.20, 0.20, and 0.17). The two-stage approximation to UK also performed better than LUR and nearly as well as the full UK model with CV R(2) values 0.75, 0.70, and 0.70 (CV RMSE 0.20, 0.17, and 0.17) for summer, autumn, and winter, respectively. CONCLUSION: High quality LUR and UK prediction models for NOx in Los Angeles were developed for the three seasons based on data collected for MESA Air. In our study, UK consistently outperformed LUR. Similarly, the 2-step approach was more effective than the LUR models, with performance equal to or slightly worse than UK.     

Spectroscopic speciation and quantification of lead in phosphate-amended soils

The immobilization of Pb in contaminated soils as pyromorphite [Pb(5)(PO(4))(3)Cl, OH, F] through the addition of various phosphate amendments has gained much attention in the remediation community. However, it is difficult to fully determine the speciation and amount of soil Pb converted to pyromorphite by previously employed methods, such as selective sequential extraction procedures and scanning electron microscopy coupled with energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy, which often lead to erroneous results in these non-equilibrated and heterogeneous systems. Statistical analysis by linear combination fitting (LCF) applied to X-ray absorption fine structure (XAFS) spectroscopic data of Pb-contaminated soil samples relative to known Pb reference material provides direct, in situ evidence of dominate Pb species in the amended soils without chemical or physical disruption to the Pb species as well as a weighted quantification output. The LCF-XAFS approach illustrated that pyromorphite concentration ranged from 0% (control soil) to 45% (1% phosphoric acid amendment, residence time of 32 mo) relative to the total Pb concentration. The Pb speciation in the nonamended control soil included Pb-sulfur species (galena + angelsite = 53%), adsorbed Pb (inner-sphere + outer-sphere + organic-bound = 45%), and Pb-carbonate phases (cerussite + hydrocerussite = 2%). The addition of P promoted pyromorphite formation and the rate of formation increased with increasing P concentration (up to 45%). The supplemental addition of an iron amendment as an iron-rich byproduct with triple superphosphate (TSP) enhanced pyromorphite formation relative to independent TSP amendment of like concentrations (41 versus 29%). However, the amendment of biosolids and biosolids plus TSP observed little pyromorphite formation (1-16% of total Pb), but a significant increase of sorbed Pb was determined by LCF-XAFS.     

Assessment of the effectiveness of scup bycatch-reduction regulations in the Loligo squid fishery

Discard reduction is a component of the statutory requirements of the Sustainable Fisheries Act. One species of concern is scup, Stenotomus chrysops, discarded in the Loligo pealei fishery. Initially, regulations were imposed restricting the fishery in time and space to avoid areas and times associated with high scup discarding. Modified gear was required in 2003 on any boat fishing in areas otherwise closed to the fishery to reduce scup discarding. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the success of the 2003 net regulations and the potential influence of time-area closures (GRAs) in achieving a reduction in scup discarding. The regulations are based on three expectations. (1) Reduction in discarding in the Loligo squid fishery will materially reduce total scup discarding. (2) Exclusion of Loligo squid fishing vessels from the GRAs will result in these vessels fishing in areas that inherently produce fewer scup discards without equivalently increasing discarding in other sensitive species. (3) The use of a square-mesh large-mesh section in the extension will reduce scup discarding to the extent that otherwise would be achieved if the boats fished outside the GRAs without the economic cost imposed by redeploying the fleet. Analysis of the NMFS-NEFSC observer database offers no support for the belief that Expectation 1 has been met. Squid catches were too low to sustain a directed fishery in the northern GRA during this study. Thus, had this area been open, limited scup discarding would have occurred. In this study, squid catches averaged 1025 kg tow(-1) in the southern GRA. Thus, had the GRA been open, Loligo fishing would have taken place. Yet, in the 34 tows taken by two vessels, not a single scup was caught. Redeployment of the fleet clearly increased scup discarding in 2003. Thus, Expectation 2 was not met. Field tests demonstrated that the implemented net modification can produce reduced catches of mostly smaller-sized finfish without impairing squid catch, but the data also indicate that this result may not be routinely achieved. Thus, Expectation 3 was not completely met. Implementation of the 2003 net regulation was likely premature, in that the specification was not adequate to guarantee the desired results. The history of the scup discarding issue in the Loligo squid fishery demonstrates that discard reduction cannot be accomplished without adequate prior evaluation of the sources of discards, without the requisite and concomitant experimental evaluation of the results of regulatory reform, and without adequate commercial-scale testing of prospective reforms prior to implementation.     

Application of Decision Analysis to Forest Road Deactivation in Unstable Terrain

Resource managers require objective methodologies to optimize decisions related to forest road deactivation and other aspects of road management, especially in steep terrain, where road-related slope failures inflict extensive environmental damage. Decision analysis represents a systematic framework that clearly identifies real options and critical decision points. This framework links current decisions with expected future outcomes and provides advantages such as a common currency to systematically explore the liability consequences of limited budget expenditures to road deactivation and other road-related activities. Furthermore, the decision framework prevents the analysis from becoming hopelessly entangled by the vast number of possibilities generated by the alternative occurrences, magnitudes, and consequences of landslide/debris flow events and provides the information required for the first step of an adaptive management process. Here, a structured analysis of potential environmental risks for a road deactivation project in coastal British Columbia, Canada is presented. The application of decision analysis generates a ranking of the expected benefits of proposed deactivation activities on various road sections. The ranking distinguishes between road sections that offer high expected benefit from those that offer moderate to low expected benefit. Seventeen of 171, 100–m road segments accounted for 18% of the cumulative cost and 98% of the cumulative expected net benefits from road deactivation. Furthermore, the cost of deactivating a section of road is related to the expected benefit from such deactivation, thus providing the basis for more effective resource allocation and budgeting decisions.     

Salmonella typhimurium survival and viability is unaltered by suspended particles in freshwater

Rolling microcosm experiments were conducted to determine whether suspended particles affect the survival and viability of a model pathogen, Salmonella choleraesuis, serotype typhimurium (American Type Culture Collection no. 23567), in a freshwater microbial community. Water from the Duluth, MN harbor of Lake Superior (including native microorganisms) was inoculated with clay, silt, or flocculent organic particles in a range of concentrations and a streptomycin-resistant strain of S. typhimurium. Microcosms (incubated at 20 degrees C) were rolled horizontally (3 rpm) and sampled periodically for total bacteria and total, viable, and culturable S. typhimurium. Total S. typhimurium abundance decreased rapidly in all experiments (8.5-73.1% d-1). Total bacteria did not decrease as rapidly as the S. typhimurium population in any experiment, suggesting that a microcosm effect was not responsible for the decline in S. typhimurium populations. Loss rates of attached and free cells were similar, indicating that attachment to particles did not enhance the persistence of Salmonella cells beyond our minimum detectable differences. After eight days, only 0.1 to 11.9% of the initial S. typhimurium inocula were detected by direct counts. Suspended particles had a minimal effect on the survival and viability of S. typhimurium; the losses of total, viable, or culturable Salmonella were generally the same across particle treatments and concentrations. Silt and flocculent particles affected loss rates of total and viable S. typhimurium similarly to inorganic particles (clay). It appears unlikely that suspended particles would provide a means for S. typhimurium to persist at hazardous levels in freshwater.     

A tracer study of headspace ventilation in a collector sewer

A field-scale tracer test was conducted to evaluate in-situ ventilation rates in a major collector sewer. The sewer under study was approximately 11 km long and ranged from 0.61 to 2.1 m in diameter. For the purposes of the tracer testing, the collector was divided into four reaches, each of which was tested individually. The tracer test involved injecting a measured volume of CO gas into a manhole over a short time period. CO concentrations were then measured in the collector headspace at selected manholes along the length of the reach. The technique employed successfully measured average headspace velocities over extended lengths of the collector. In a section that had a relatively stagnant headspace, approximately 1.1 km of sewer could be evaluated, with substantial tracer loss attributed to losses to manholes. In a section of the sewer with elevated headspace velocities, a section approximately 7.0 km long was successfully tested with one injection of tracer gas. The velocities observed in the collector varied substantially with time and location in the collector. The lowest velocities measured were in the upstream sections, with a minimum observed value of 3.8 m/min. The highest velocities were observed in the downstream sections, with a maximum value of 31.5 m/min. The presence of a substantial drop structure appeared to reduce the headspace velocity in the upstream reach. In general, there was an increasing trend in gas-phase flows with distance along the length of the collector. Flows at the discharge end of the collector were almost 2 orders of magnitude greater than those at the beginning.     

Evaluation of the Use of Solar Irradiation for the Decontamination of Soils Containing Wood Treating Wastes

Laboratory evaluation of the efficacy of soil phase photodegradation of recalcitrant hazardous organic components of wood treating wastes is described. The photodecomposition of anthracene, biphenyl, 9H-carbazole, m-cresol, dibenzofuran, fluorene, pentachlorophenol, phenanthrene, pyrene and quinoline under UV and visible light was monitored over a 50-day reaction period in three test soils. Methylene blue, riboflavin, hydrogen peroxide, peat moss and diethylamine soil amendments were evaluated as to their effect on the enhancement of compound photoreaction rates in the test soil systems. Dark control samples monitored over the entire study period were utilized to quantify non-photo mediated reaction losses. Compounds losses in both the dark control and irradiated samples were found to follow first order kinetics, allowing the calculation of first order photodegradation reaction rate constants for each test soil/compound combination. Degradation due to photochemical activity was observed for all test compounds, with compound photolytic half-lives ranging from 7 to approximately 180 days. None of the soil amendments were found to improve soil phase photodegradation, although photosensitization by anthracene was shown to significantly enhance the rate of photodegradation of the other test compounds. Soil type, and its characteristic of internal reflectance, proved to be the most significant factor affecting compound degradation rates suggesting the necessity for site specific assessments of soil phase photodegradation potential.     

Indoor/Outdoor Measurements of Volatile Organic Compounds in the Kanawha Valley of West Virginia

The Kanawha Valley region of West Virginia which is comprised of Charleston and surrounding communities Is the center of a heavily industrialized area known for its chemical manufacturing. As part of a larger study designed to investigate the Impact of the chemical industry on human exposures to volatile organic compounds (VOC), a study of the relationship between indoor and outdoor concentrations was conducted. Thirty-five homes were selected for monitoring from among volunteers; approximately ten in each of three distinct population-industry centers and four outside the Valley to act as controls. Monitoring was performed using passive, badge samplers with a three-week monitoring period. Two separate questionnaires were administered: one for characterization of the residence; and one to characterize source use during monitoring. Participants were also asked to keep a record of their activities with respect to in-home, outdoors and other Indoor environments. Analysis of the samplers was performed by solvent extraction followed by gas chromatography using a flame-ionization detector. Results suggest that indoor VOC concentrations are higher than outdoor concentrations. Additionally, certain ventilation-related parameters were identified that afforded some predictive power for indoor concentrations. No statistically significant differences between regions were identified.